POLITICS INTEL U.S. Presidential Approval Ratings & Historical Governance Patterns Presidential approval ratings during midterm election years show consistent patterns: sitting presidents lose congressional seats when approval falls below 50%, with an average loss of 25 House seats since 1950. The 2022 midterms defied this trend with only 13-seat losses despite inflation reaching 9.1%—the highest in 40 years—suggesting economic anxiety alone doesn't guarantee electoral punishment if voters perceive divided responsibility or alternative narratives. Historically, parties maintaining power during high-inflation periods succeed only when unemployment remains low and wage growth outpaces price increases, as occurred in 1998-2000 and 2022-2024. Understanding these dynamics matters because they reveal that electoral outcomes reflect voter psychology about controllable versus global economic factors, not objective economic conditions alone.