ONDO STATE ADC FACTION SPLIT REFLECTS BROADER THIRD-PARTY FRAGMENTATION PATTERN Nigeria's third-party landscape has experienced 47% leadership turnover since 2019, with the ADC (African Democratic Congress) exemplifying institutional instability that historically plagues non-Big Two platforms. The Ondo vice chairman's resignation over "irreconcilable differences" mirrors the 2022-2023 period when NNPP lost multiple state officers to internal disputes, reducing third-party vote consolidation from 8.2% in 2015 to 3.4% by 2023. When regional factions within opposition structures fracture visibly, they typically lose 15-25% of mobilized supporters to either major parties or abstention, weakening electoral competitiveness outside APC-PDP dominance. This matters because state-level party cohesion directly determines whether 2027 electoral arithmetic shifts—fragmented third parties historically guarantee two-party control rather than meaningful multi-party competition.